CA-13 Candidate Comparison Matrix

2026 General Election · California's 13th Congressional District

Adam Gray (D — Incumbent) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R)

November 3, 2026

Presented by Indivisible El Dorado · Prepared: June 24, 2026, 7:56 PM PDT

Sources: FEC, OpenSecrets, GovTrack, CBS News, NRCC, DCCC, CalMatters, Wikipedia, KSEE/KGPE

District Context

The redrawn CA-13 (Prop. 50) spans the northern San Joaquin Valley—Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Madera & Fresno counties—now including an arm into Stockton. The 2024 race was the closest House race in the nation, decided by 187 votes. The redrawn map is considered more favorable to Democrats than the prior lines. Race rating: Competitive / Lean Democratic (post-redistricting). CA-13 is a priority target for both the DCCC and NRCC.

Adam Gray (Democrat · Incumbent) · gray.house.gov · Kevin Lincoln (Republican · Challenger) · www.kevinlincolnforcongress.com

Background
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
Born and raised in Merced, CA; B.A. in Political Science, UC Santa Barbara Legislative aide, California State Legislature; lecturer in state politics & policymaking, UC Merced California State Senate (District 12), 2007–2011 California State Assembly (District 21), 2012–2022 (decade of legislative experience) Won CA-13 in 2024 by 187 votes—the last House race called and the closest in the nation Lost 2022 CA-13 general to John Duarte by 564 votes Member: New Democrat Coalition; Blue Dog Coalition Committees: Natural Resources; House Agriculture (relevant to district’s farming economy)	Born in San Joaquin County; raised in Stockton, CA; son of a Mexican-American mother and African-American father U.S. Marine Corps veteran; served on Marine One during the George W. Bush administration Career in private security sector management (AlliedBarton, Securitas AB) Ordained pastor; previously resigned from pastorate to serve as mayor full-time Mayor of Stockton, 2021–2025—defeated incumbent Michael Tubbs by ~13 points in 2020 Ran for CA-9 in 2024; lost to Rep. Josh Harder 48.2%–51.8% Switched to CA-13 following Prop. 50 redistricting (Stockton added to district) Education: A.S. Business; B.S. Business Management; M.S. Executive Leadership

Key Priorities
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
Water infrastructure & agriculture: Central Valley Project modernization; new reservoir capacity; permitting reform (SPEED Act; WATER Act; Central Valley Water Solution Act) Farm bill advocacy: secured Central Valley provisions in Farm, Food & National Security Act of 2026 Affordable Care Act: led effort to extend ACA enhanced premium tax credits for 3 years Bipartisan infrastructure & permitting reform (CERTAIN Act; co-led with Republicans) Public safety & law enforcement resources Responsible ICE enforcement—sent letter questioning detention policy impacts on local law enforcement Veterans’ healthcare & education Fiscal moderation: Blue Dog / New Dem approach to balanced budgets and cost reduction	Cost of living reduction—central campaign theme for families “left behind” Border security; supports Trump immigration enforcement policies Public safety & anti-crime (cited crime reduction as Stockton mayor priority) Good schools and community investment (pro-growth, pro-housing platform) American manufacturing & energy dominance Term limits (signed U.S. Term Limits pledge) Pro-Trump legislative agenda: tax cuts, deregulation, energy production Putting “American workers first”—NRCC-aligned platform

Key Endorsements
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee)—priority seat California Farm Bureau—key bipartisan signal in agricultural district Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA)—endorsed in 2022 and 2024; expected 2026 Modesto Bee and Fresno Bee (editorial endorsements in 2024) Broad coalition of local elected officials across all five district counties Mayors from across the Central Valley (bipartisan local support) Labor and business community leaders in Merced and surrounding counties AIPAC (pro-Israel PAC; co-sponsored Gottheimer Iran resolution)	President Donald Trump (personal endorsement) Speaker Mike Johnson (House Republican leadership) NRCC—named to “MAGA Majority” program (first round, March 2026) Former Rep. John Duarte (R)—prior CA-13 incumbent endorsed Lincoln shortly after his entry U.S. Term Limits (pledge signer) Republican Party of California Agricultural and business community supporters in San Joaquin County

Advantages
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
Incumbent with proven district delivery—bipartisan water, farm bill, and infrastructure wins in first term Prop. 50 redistricting added more Democrats to CA-13—new map considered more favorable to Gray Fundraising lead—Gray holds more cash on hand heading into the general per FEC filings DCCC full institutional support: staff, data, air support, voter contact California Farm Bureau endorsement signals crossover appeal with Republican-leaning farmers Moderate “Blue Dog” brand suits swing district; does not threaten conservatives on guns, water, or ag Deep roots and three previous campaigns in the district—name recognition advantage	Trump personal endorsement activates national MAGA donor and volunteer networks NRCC “MAGA Majority” program provides national GOP infrastructure and ad spending Executive experience as mayor of Stockton—California’s 11th largest city Marine Corps veteran background resonates with military-heavy Valley communities Stockton now inside redrawn CA-13—Lincoln is a known local figure there Came within 2.4 points of winning CA-9 in 2024—proven competitive general election candidate Unique biography (Black/Latino Marine veteran pastor) complicates Democratic attack lines Speaker Johnson endorsement adds House leadership prestige and fundraising contacts

Vulnerabilities
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
Razor-thin 2024 win (187 votes) signals persistent competitiveness—no margin for error Three consecutive close races show structural drag; district is not safe Blue territory Foreign policy positions (pro-Israel, AIPAC-linked) risk voter discontent among Arab American and progressive communities Co-sponsored Gottheimer Iran resolution—voted against Khanna-Massie war powers effort—exposed as insufficiently anti-war for activists Missed vote rate (5.3%) higher than median congressional member—potential contrast target Blue Dog brand may depress progressive base turnout if enthusiasm lags Republican midterm environment could stall expected Democratic structural gains	Lost CA-9 in 2024—this is his second consecutive congressional race attempt; label as a repeat loser Redrawn CA-13 favors Democrats—Prop. 50 added more Democratic voters intentionally Strong Trump alignment may be a liability in a competitive general (Trump lost CA broadly) Not a district native in the same way Gray is—Stockton-centric identity vs. Merced-centered district core Platform lacks detailed agricultural policy—a weakness in the nation’s most productive farmland Anti-midterm wave environment for GOP: national mood expected to disadvantage Republicans in 2026 Gray has legislatively delivered on water and ag—Lincoln must overcome a record of tangible constituent results

Campaign & Major Donors
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
2024 cycle total expenditures: ~$3.15M (OpenSecrets); fundraising heavily again for 2026 FEC data confirms Gray holds more cash on hand heading into the general than Lincoln DCCC “Frontline” program provides independent expenditure support and national fundraising infrastructure AIPAC and affiliated pro-Israel PAC contributions (co-sponsored their favored Iran resolution) Agricultural industry donors; water infrastructure and construction interests JDCA-affiliated Jewish donor network New Democrat Coalition PAC and Blue Dog PAC affiliated support Labor unions and local business associations across the five-county district	FEC data shows Lincoln fundraising and spending heavily; trails Gray in cash on hand NRCC independent expenditures expected to supplement Lincoln’s campaign committee Congressional Leadership Fund (GOP super PAC) likely to invest given MAGA Majority designation Trump small-dollar donor network (national list access via MAGA Majority program) San Joaquin County business and real estate donor base from mayoral networks Former Rep. John Duarte donor contacts—inherited when Duarte endorsed Lincoln National Republican dark money and party infrastructure expected to activate

Foreign Policy
Adam GrayDemocrat · Incumbent	Kevin LincolnRepublican · Challenger
Voted against the Khanna-Massie bipartisan War Powers Resolution to end U.S. involvement in the Iran war Co-sponsored the Gottheimer alternative Iran resolution (H.Con.Res. 75)—a more moderate, pro-Israel alternative that set a March 30 deadline for the conflict Statement on Iran: “The Constitution is clear—Congress carries the solemn responsibility to declare war. The President must present a clear strategy… before the U.S. is drawn further into another conflict.” AIPAC-endorsed; cited Iran’s funding of Hamas and Hezbollah as threats to allies Called for congressional oversight of military engagement without endorsing full withdrawal Welcomed $540M in federal water infrastructure funding secured via One Big Beautiful Bill Act	Fully aligned with Trump foreign policy framework—pledges to support Trump’s America First agenda in Congress Supports Trump-backed military engagement with Iran as part of broad national security posture No public break with GOP on Israel or Middle East policy; expected to vote with House Republican majority on defense and foreign aid Emphasizes border security as a national security issue interlinking domestic and foreign policy Platform does not include specific foreign policy positions beyond America First framework and strong U.S.-Israel alliance support As a Marine Corps veteran, frames military posture through lens of service and national strength

Presented by Indivisible El Dorado. For informational purposes only. Data drawn from public FEC filings, candidate websites, and reported news sources as of June 24, 2026. This document does not constitute an official endorsement.